Enjoy the second-to-last season of “American Idol.”
And, I should say, the last good season of the show.
Because once Simon Cowell leaves, “Idol” turns into “Star Search.” It's “X-Files” without Mulder and Scully, “Happy Days” without Richie, “The Dukes of Hazzard” without Bo and Luke.
Simon Cowell IS “American Idol.”
Sorry, Fox, co-hosts and various contestants, but it's true.
The reason this show has become successful is because everyone watches to see what Simon says. Especially during the early “let's trot out the major league failures!” shows where all the people who don't have a chance in hell - many of whom tried out on a dare, to get publicity or because producers offered them a warm meal - are showcased to be torn apart.
Yes, William Hung, I'm talkin' 'bout you.
Simon is easily the most compelling character on the show. And since you've got to have a compelling returning character to make a show work, you could say rightfully so that he's the reason the show has succeeded.
Yeah, there have been contestants worth watching, but for the most part there haven't been a lot of huge, lengthy careers launched by “Idol.” Most of the winners have fizzled out quickly after their initial fame bump. In fact, more runners-up have gone on to greater success than any of the winners.
What that says to me is that viewers are more caught up in the horse race aspect of the contestants. They pick their faves the same way anyone making an infrequent trip to the track might, then root for them to win because they have a fleeting emotional investment in their success. But beyond that, there's no real attachment.
When the only people you can think of over all these years who have had long, successful careers off the show are Kelly Clarkson, Carrie Underwood and Daughtry, you know you're in trouble. Not because of any indictment on their talent, but because that's only THREE people. Out of how many hundreds who have been finalists?
In reality, there's only one person who has been a breakout star from the show. Only one person who has had lengthy, sustained fame from it.
Simon Cowell.
He's the star.
He'll have a long career.
Paula is two years and three reality shows away from a return to oblivion.
Randy and Kara are one cancelation away.
And that cancelation will happen after next season.
Here's how it's gonna go down:
This season will be its usual big self, with Simon bowing out at the end of the year.
Next year they'll try to bring in some other tart British judge like Nigel Lithgow or someone like that. Basically a Scrappy Doo to Simon's Scooby.
Ratings will start off decently and the ass-kissy half of the entertainment media will write stories about “Idol” “still having it!” and other bullshit lies that are basically being planted by Fox producers.
Then about three or four weeks in, the ratings will start to slide. Another network will smell blood and will put a hot show up against “Idol” and it'll start to beat it up and eventually put it out of its misery.
By the end of the year, “Idol” ratings will be in that middling ground that isn't terrible but is far below what they're used to.
And, at that point, once the season is over, Fox will cancel “Idol.”
In the meantime, Simon will have gone on, with Paula and another guy to fill Randy's spot - which shouldn't be difficult since Randy is basically interchangable with any other music industry Al Roker - and will have a hit with the show “X Factor,” which will be the new “American Idol.”
And Fox execs, formerly full of hubris, will look and feel like douchebags for not rewarding the person who REALLY made “Idol” what it was, and who made them all millions of dollars.
Simon Cowell.
So, “Idol” fans, enjoy this year. It's the last one that'll be worth enjoying.
And get ready to jump ship to “X Factor.”
BYLINE:
Sean Leary's recent and current projects include the alt-rock "Spinal Tap" comedy film "Your Favorite Band" (www.yourfavoritebandthefilm.com), the award-winning short story collection "Every Number Is Lucky To Someone" (available in bookstores nationwide and on Amazon.com) and his website: www.getyourgoodnews.com.
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